In the latest episode of Carson’s Take 5, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments from the Jackson Hole Symposium. While Powell cracked the door open to rate cuts, inflation remains sticky, and markets are already pricing in lower rates through 2026. Ryan and Sonu explore what this means for the Fed’s dual mandate, the odds of a recession, and why markets continue to signal strength despite economic headwinds.
Key Takeaways
- Powell’s signal: The Fed Chair acknowledged inflation risks remain but also flagged rising risks to employment, suggesting cuts may be warranted.
- Recession outlook: With stocks at all-time highs and banks globally surging, recession odds appear much lower than earlier in the year.
- Economic data: Q2 GDP was revised higher due to investment and AI spending, even as consumer spending softened.
- Seasonality caution: August and September can be weaker months historically, but broader bull market trends remain intact.
